It floods our news feeds and saturates the real-time newsbands of news channels. It would be imminent, almost at our door (” in campaigns, on social networks “). And those who don’t start storing water packs are at worst unconscious, at best naive. And in parallel, in our small crypto community, Bitcoin is inevitably presented as a form of solution to this inevitable crisis that is coming. Because yes, this is what it is about: the famous, the inevitable great crisis that seems to be promised to us. And once it comes, Bitcoin will be assumed to be able to finally realize its true potential, opening an era where the king of electronic currencies would become king of currencies, in short.
At least, our preferred digital currency would necessarily explode in value, as capital inflows became massive, with investors deserting en masse all other assets, the dollar and its fiduciary cousins in mind.
This apocalyptic discourse is seductive. He is sexy, he feels danger and could give the current impression to bitcoin holders that – thanks to their brilliant powers of anticipation – they will be able to “cope”.
But voila, as often in life, things will probably be more complex than that. Crisis and Bitcoin, we are trying to see more clearly.
Introduction to the coming (or not) global crisis
I am not a fan of conspiracy theories, and I am struck by a particular affliction: I am an unbelievable optimist. This is to tell you how frankly I am not connected with the time and its happy twilight atmosphere.
To speak concretely, it means that I am not the best client of speeches apocalyptic, no more than a lover of the narrative of recent years on “The coming crisis, the worst we’ve ever known”.
“The more people hear about a crisis, the less likely it is to happen. “
Of course, I’m not pretending that a crisis isn’t brooding, nor am I showing blissful optimism.
But what I’m sure of is that when the next one breaks out, she will take everyone of course and will not have been anticipated by anyone (in any case person monopolizing the media and political scene). To put it differently, the more people report a crisis, the less likely it is to happen.
And imagine Crisis, whatever corner of the chessboard we are talking about, everyone comes together to announce it as imminent … for a very long time!
An apocalypse clock with everything from the post office calendar
It only takes a simple search in open sources to realize that from that of subprimes of 2008 – a little bit about September 11 from the financial world – not a month, not a year goes by, without the “ crisis “, the next, the real real, the mother of all the others, the “ systemic “, Either announced as imminent by a whole series of self-proclaimed prophets of the coming disaster.
2015 was advertised as “The year of shock” by Express. In 2016, Le Figaro explained to us that the bankruptcies of American hedge funds Third avenue and Stone lion were similar to those, which had taken place in 2007, triggering the subprime crisis. A crisis of the same magnitude was logically announced as imminent.
In March of that same year, it was through the words of the economist at the French Observatory of Economic Conjunctures Yves Dimicoli (author of the book ” Facing the coming crisis “, Original isn’t it?), Reported by Humanity, that an identical speech was carried: fasten your belts, things were going to go into a spin forever. Note that Dimicoli was already in a logic of goodwill: in 2011 he tapped on toga on pans in “repent!” Mode.
In 2017, an ARTE documentary “The gangsters of Finance”, made the bet: “Political irresponsibility” would lead to a global crisis in 2018.
In 2018, the consensus was total: 2019 was going to be cataclysmic. Capital even explained to us that “This crisis was going to ridicule all the others”.
In April 2019, Georges Ugeux the former Wall Street Number 2 was sure of it and explained it in his book ” The Descent into Hell of Finance “: A global financial crisis was going “Bring the world to its knees before the end of 2020”…
You understood the exercise.
And if you want to continue the experience, you will quickly notice that, since 2008 not a year has passed without an army of observers and analysts of all stripes announcing in any way that it is there, we were there: start storing water packs and iodine lozenges.
And even take advantage to broaden the focus. If the 2008 crisis embodied a perfect cultural scarecrow (everyone remembers it, it left traces still visible today), whether you are 17 or 40 years old, do you remember a time or in the western sphere, the official narrative was not built around the notion of “crisis”?
Back in 2020
What do all the stock analysts, financial analysts and other economists who have a minimum of audible speaking time tell us?
The crisis is obviously coming, and it will be terrible… 2021, it is Jacques Attali who says so! Or maybe 2022 and there, it is the IMF which anticipates it, “In the event of an increase in interest rates”.
Unless it is “Before 2025”, and there they are ” 83% of large investors “ who are convinced, according to a survey of Natixis from a few weeks ago.
Why this enumeration you might ask yourself?
Well to make you realize that this grammar of the apocalypse, on the one hand is tangible, and also that it serves the most concrete interests.
As I’ve taken care to remind you, conspiracy theories, very little to me. So I would not be the one to point out to you the invisible hand of illuminatis, Freemasons of Indre and Loire (we kiss them) or reptilians behind the phenomenon. However, it’s hard not to notice that an anxious and paranoid population will always be easier to handle and orient than another confident in her values and optimistic about her future.
And yet, despite appearances and feelings, the individual has never, in all of human history, swum more in opulence than today. As for the financial markets in this new year? All is well for them, thank you.
Let’s get it right: the world is bad. It is going economically, ecologically, demographically bad, difficult not to agree.
The only thing is that since the industrial revolution, the race for the comfort of the individual and the mechanization of war, do not displease us, the world has more or less always been bad.
On the other hand, with the media system and technological progress helping, the planet has shrunk. No longer a conflict that is not covered and illustrated in real time, a potential confrontation, a dramatic event that does not instantly find an echo, feeding the streams of news channels continuously.
We stretch the misfortunes of the world before our eyes so that our redeemable attention is retained as long as possible. And this phenomenal amount of stimulus feeds existential anxiety of a large part of a Western population, worried about losing the unprecedented material and societal comfort in which they live. “The collapse” would be on our doorstep, the crisis for tomorrow.
This anxiety-provoking speech works perfectly well. Indeed, for reasons specific to the human psyche, we always listen more attentively to a catastrophic word than to an enumeration of good news.
As such, we sell more paper and generate more clicks on a sensationalist “10 signs that the next crisis will be catastrophic and happen tomorrow »Only on an article which will explain that things could not go so bad after all and that, when in doubt, you have to know how to take a step back.
Besides, this paper may be an excellent illustration of this and that is why it is now time to speak …Bitcoin !
A crisis ? No, fits
I am not a sighted person any more than an economist. However, I will venture to sketch two main hypotheses of “crises” with a very different nature and potentially diametrically opposite consequences for Bitcoin.
Hypothesis 1: In the future, a “traditional” crisis strikes. Long live Bitcoin!
I think it useful to recall at this point that the financial world is now infinitely better equipped and able to withstand an economic crisis today than it was in 2008.
The system is no more virtuous, its actors still as cynical and interested but the current alert and countermeasures systems are of unequaled performance, in accordance with the principle “Sub-prime scalded cat fears cold water of negative interest rates”.
However, whether because of the American student debt, the trade war with the China, negative interest rates or any other economic parameter that turns red, it is possible that a serious economic collapse – even structural – come on.
Note : this article was started before the coronavirus epidemic began, confirming the background of this article.
In the most severe cases, this event could be accompanied by a fall in investor and consumer confidence in their traditional fiduciary economic systems, going hand in hand with an exodus towards “safe haven” assets, among which the real estate, raw and precious materials and …Bitcoin ! This is the hypothesis of JP Morgan and more and more reputable investment funds. Bitcoin is increasingly designated as a safe haven that can store value in the event of economic and geopolitical unrest.
The year 2019 particularly demonstrated this to us with the tensions Iran-USA and let’s bet that 2020 will also be full of illustrations of the genre.
So, assuming a similar crisis – or even more violent – that in 2008 Bitcoin could (should?) see its value increase, not to say explode.
Hypothesis 2: A systemic (“collapsological”) crisis puts everything on the ground (and Bitcoin with it)
It is the hypothesis of those who foresee an unprecedented event by its magnitude and its nature which would lead to a phenomenon ” collapse “(” Collapse “).
This collapse would only not only economical.
Typically a hyperinflation and the total loss of trust in global currencies and economic systems is only one facet of this catastrophe. The share of the population adhering to this theory (and its different versions) going up, feeding discussion groups on social networks and forums survivalists (even if collapsologists and survivalists are not necessarily the same audience).
According to the convictions of the collapsologists, systemic collapse could send society back to a pre-industrial stage (even prehistoric would say the most worried, since the modern man suddenly deprived of his tools of modernity would not be much better than a newborn in a hostile environment).
The purpose of this article is not to debate the realism of this assumption, or the real depth of the impact of a systemic crisis.
What is certain, however, is that it would imply such a deterioration in living conditions, that the whole population would review its position with regard to needs pyramid (known as “de Maslow”).
So rather than worrying about the value of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, individuals will be most concerned to ensure their basic subsistence see – in the most radical cases – of guarantee their simple physical security.
In this scheme, the impact from a monetary point of view would constitute more than a return to a barter economy, and possibly the use of precious metals or from tangible goods rather than using virtual currencies.
And even if work and experiments are underway to envisage the use of the Bitcoin blockchain, without Internet, it is advisable to be realistic: in a world where accessible and inexpensive energy sources would be lacking, populations will favor heating and meeting primary needs over mining and storage of cryptocurrencies.
It’s worth remembering that seemingly unlimited access to electrical resources – and more, IT – day before yesterday on the scale of human industrial history (just over a century for electricity, a few decades for computing power).
Conclusion of the crisis
It’s a certainty that Bitcoin is thriving under the current and future crises. The creation of Nakamoto is obviously able to perfectly play its role of “Plan B” according to political upheavals, embodying the ideal receptacle for investors – including institutional – who are becoming more aware of their qualities and resilience every day.
All this will work perfectly, in the context of “classic” economic crises, specific to the economic cycles of capitalism as we know it.
But unfortunately there is a collapse, and the intrinsic qualities of Bitcoin will disappear instantly, at the very moment when houses will only have light or heating for 2 hours a day.
And while waiting for the crisis, in doubt go and mine Bitcoin in Canada!
Nice to meet you, it’s Hellmouth! Editor-in-chief of Bitcoin, the crypto media you are honoring to survey right now (well done, you have taste).
Crypto-enthusiast of the second hour, nothing is more important to me than supporting the global adoption and democratization of the treasures that the blockchain offers us.
I write articles between two cocktails in Tahiti, my adopted island, and do not hesitate, if the opportunity arises, to feast on a plump scam or a little too enterprising Ponzi pyramid.
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