No massive blockchain adoption before 2028 – Bitcoin – Bitcoin 2020

The concept of “hype cycle” was formalized by the Gartner company to model the different phases characterizing the appearance and development of a technology. This model starts from the postulate that, from its discovery, until it is massively adopted, an innovation is supposed to go through similar stages, marked in particular by significant fluctuations in interest.

In its most recent report, the Gartner company returns to expectations in terms of Blockchain technologies, in particular from the point of view of the disappointment of a number of players who expected that Distributed Registries (DLT) mechanisms would save the world, there, right away.

Nay according to Gartner: The blockchain, as revolutionary as it is presented will do like everyone and will have to wait its turn, at least 2028, to finally realize its full potential.

The Hype Cycle: From unreasonable elation to post-hangover depression

According to Gartner, from the invention of the wheel to that of the Internet, any major invention with a vocation ” disrupter », Will go through the following 5 steps:

  • The technology launch phase. This is the prime youth of an innovation, one where only prototypes are starting to appear.
  • The peak of exaggerated expectations. The ultimate racing phase. The specialists at first, then the general public go into a trance, as the novelty seems promising. Start-ups appear out of nowhere and start to work frantically to meet unrealistic expectations. Indeed at this stage the technology is anything but mature and for its part very often continues to simply evolve in the prototyping area.
  • The abyss of disillusionment. Everyone starts to wake up. While billions have been swallowed up, the promised elephant gives birth to rare sickly and asthmatic mice. It’s time for exile to exotic tax havens for the quickest and to be accountable for the others. It’s time to look for responsibility and to lament the mode ” All that for this ? “ Technology and its actors – even the most honest and credible – are covered with reproaches and lose credibility. The very relevance of technology is questioned.
  • The slope of enlightenment. After this enormous purge, only the most solid societies remain. In parallel with everything ambient, technology has continued to evolve and begins to offer real possibilities in what becomes a form of general indifference (fueled by the resentment of those who were spun in the previous phase and of the general public’s misunderstanding, who had been announced far too early revolution who is long overdue).
  • The productivity plateau. The technology is solid and mature. Only a handful of players remain, who become industry leaders (players who very often did not yet exist during the previous phases), and a multitude of smaller niche structures. The whole forms a healthy ecosystem, generator of growth. Until the next disruption.
Illustration of Gartner cycles for various technologies

Where are we for the blockchain then?

These few elements tend to make us think that we are somewhere between the phase of disillusionment and that of enlightenment. Indeed, following on fromhysteria of 2017 and with the slow deterioration of 2018, the sector was literally flushed out by 90% of its players and the majority of fanciful blockchain-based projects.

It will be recalled indeed that, was a time not so distant, it was enough to place some buzz words ((blockchain, crypto, smart contract, tokenomic…) attached to any random topic so that teams of 2 guys gathered last week over a beer were able to raise $ 15 million during an ICO.

If the disaster was foreseeable (but they are always easier to see happening a posteriori), and left traces still very painful today, that doesn’t stop the industry from continuing to grow thanks to the tenacity and talent of many players who, after having weathered the storm, persist in setting up the foundations which tomorrow will support the sector.

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Based on this observation, Gartner has had its predictive algorithms milled and this is what came out of it:

  • We are still in the depths of disillusionment, probably until 2021,
  • the purging phase therefore continues, sorting out vain projects and those that will change the face of the industry,
  • blockchain technologies will not be fully operational that by 2028

The best is yet to come

Perhaps more interesting than these temporal predictions, Avivah litan, vice president of research at Gartner explains:

“We are witnessing many developments in blockchain technology that are likely to change the current trend. By 2023, the platforms will have become scalable, interoperable and will support the portability of smart contracts and cross-chain functionality. They will also support private trust transactions with data confidentiality. All in all, these technological advances will finally bring us closer to a blockchain of everyday life and the decentralized Web, also known as Web 3.0 “

In addition, according to the analyst, ultimately users will no longer have to worry about choose the best consensus protocols or systems, the key word will be interoperability, seamlessly from a customer experience perspective.

The interested party even risks more precise predictions: “Over time, permissible blockchains will integrate with public blockchains and leverage shared services while meeting the governance and operational model requirements of permissible blockchains. “

To summarize: Yes, blockchain technologies will have a major economic and technological impact, modifying uses in multiple fields. However, in accordance with the universal principle that nothing worthwhile should be built in a hurry, it will above all be necessary to be patient and humble.

No massive blockchain adoption before 2028 – Bitcoin – Bitcoin 2020
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