But what happened to Bitcoin? Sorry, I’m going to start with bad news: We may not know for 3 to 5 years… What we can establish, however, are the current and future probable scenarios. Note that I am self-taught, this consists of my personal vision of things, and the reasoning that I humbly share with you. To do this, we must first ignore the emotions caused by the losses or the euphoria of those who were “lucky” to shorten their positions, and get into a Vulcan state of mind (As in ” peace and prosperity ”), establish the facts, analyze the probabilities – we will not be near a chouia here I assure you – and establish the objectives … Then we will have some plausible scenarios … Those who already have a headache, my apologies, but that’s also investing …
To analyze the price psychologically, you have to try to understand who is doing what, whereas from a fundamental point of view, you have to understand the technology and the financial system itself (that of Bitcoin here in this case).
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Who does what in the big circus of Bitcoin trading?
Let’s face it, impossible to know exactly … but it is still possible to imagine a few profiles:
- The first geeks. The first to have mined, admittedly few in number but some are still there, brewing considerable volumes of BTC.
- Whales. Which I will categorize here as being regular investors, but with deep pockets. They have millions in Bitcoin, probably also scattered among altcoins. Whales are experienced, but not necessarily safe from making mistakes. Some, a little too confident in their good fortunes, have committed monumental dumplings in the past.
- The banksters. It is an open secret, but it is obvious that the banks and especially the hedges funds have been in the market for a long time. Impossible to know since when exactly but the CME futures being in preparation in November 2017 and knowing that each step of these pros is meticulously calculated, He probably must have already been on the lookout during the 2015 bubble. Simple little assumption. Without being a conspiratorial, using several financial tools to win their customers (and do explode their profits by the way) we can understand that they have a certain power of manipulation and I would be very surprised that they do not use it at all.
- The exchanges. Half-whales, half-banksters, like Binance, Coinbase, Kraken… The latter hold most of the bitcoins in circulation (more than a million for coinbase), they have the same technical function as hedges funds, I like to believe that they are less sharks…. Hard to say. These convert all cryptocurrencies according to the liquidity needs of this platform. I think they are more often reactive, as they adjust to the demands of their trading platform customers.
- The big mining farms. We rarely talk about it, but they generate colossal gains which they must exchange on platforms in order to pay their operational costs, proportionally just as colossal, needless to say.
- And to finish regular investors. From $ 10 per week to $ 500,000 per year, they move prices by acting in groups, most often in reaction to the news. They are in my opinion responsible for normal corrections and trading ranges. Alone, they no notable power, their actions are also logically slower. Note here that among these investors, like the most seasoned whales, who probably control most of the respective volume, some are there because they are not afraid of anything. So they have a plan for each scenario and therefore are not all of the type “Panic sell”
Suspects and crime scene. Who killed Bitcoin?
Now the time has come to put all these little people on the chart.
We have the main fall. Before, it was dead calm, bearish scenario certainly, but nothing which let believe in this monumental fall.
Then March 12, following the announcement of the ramping up of the coronavirus pandemic (Covid-19), we lost 23% in 1 hour!
From my point of view, regular investors are excluded, the fall being too rapid. On the other hand, it is possible that 2 or 3 whales have them, panicked. This scenario although likely, would be a little surprising on their part, Let’s say that if this is the case, these few whales must also get the PQ for the next 20 years …
There is a theory lying around twitter, like what the big miners would have coordinated to lower the price in order to stifle the small competition … I admit that I don’t see the point at all, come on hop, we’re classing in the “unlikely” category.
The Banksters… Like the market crash, I believe it is in their interest to avoid an apocalyptic degeneration of the stock markets, that a market like bitcoin is moving at the same time. Otherwise, it could become safe investment and at the same time demonstrate that this system is far better than the more traditional one of the stock market and forex…. I think there is an obvious theory here that stands out. At least, the most likely that comes to my mind, and the rest only supports it.
For the rest, we have a single wave, slightly bearish, which corresponds perfectly to the normal trades of reasonable whales and investors before living a few hours later another brutal fall, but somewhat different….
If it is fairly common to see two falls spaced a few hours apart on the BTC, this particular configuration seems strange to me. As if we wanted to scare and wait for the reaction of FUD investors.
However, over the past year, I have noticed that what seems to me to be regular investors no longer really react to these declines, they just trade volatility … Missed for banksters (or others, replace the term with the one you want at the end) that forces them to make a very subtle type of movement! If things had gone as planned, the FUD would have taken place, they would buy lower for a possible profit, but instead, they have to sell again to confirm a panic:
The not very subtle stratagem is engaged: we sell (-20%), we buy (+ 20%) and we resell (-30%) …. We trade against ourselves by picking up all the microphones, and stop loss on my way…. This is what the 3 consecutive red candles tell me, followed by a green one.
Then we have the return to a trading range sideway towards a flat calm. I remind you that during this time, on the stock markets, there is not the slightest lull. I bet that the number of prayers recited at NYSE exploded “to the moon” that day…For these reasons, personally I don’t see a “normal” correlation with traditional markets.
As a conclusion, I let you make your own theories but we are now on a comeback. Personally I think they have bailed out enough but still have pockets deep enough to make it go down further, which would strengthen this theory. If we go for a rise directly to the 20,000, of course, I will admit that I was screwed up royally in the eye to the elbow …
The big lesson: Let’s always be ready for any plausible scenario, but while waiting for more to happen, remember that “We are Bitcoin”.
Hi! My name is Steefer Phans by my international name (running gag), I am a self-taught person who was “lucky” to be on sick leave, I was able to invest a lot of time understanding and learning. In cryptos since 2016, active since 2018 (Yep, I missed the bubble, the auntie…) I don’t pretend to understand everything, but I like to share especially my way of seeing the market, just to share with you which was a priori a lost time, ultimately very enriched.